Just a quick post, as I’m heading away for a few days soon – more on that to come. This is a hodge podge of predictions I am making, that will probably be wrong and will make me look a fool. But here goes.
Within 18 Months, Android will be the Dominant Mobile Platform
Apple will lose much of their market share, itunes will become second to the Android Marketplace. Apple will be reminded that customers prefer an open system.
Conservatives will take a Hammering
There are local elections in The UK tomorrow (5th May). Due to job losses amongst the working class, who tend to be labour voters, The Conservative Party is likely to take losses. Public sector jobs are also at risk, and these workers tend to have trade union backgrounds, much like the old-school pre-Blair Labour party. Many people are angry at The Liberal Democrats for breaking promises, but many are likely to also realise that the Lib Dems probably got concessions from The Conservatives as part of the coalition government. I wouldn’t be surprised if Liberal losses are minimal.
Alternative Vote Will Lose
I think it could be tight, and I’m going out on a limb, but I think the referendum for Instant runoff voting or Alternative Vote will be a ‘no’ vote. There is no doubt that AV would be a fairer system in The UK where most parties are progressive and somewhat left-of-centre and where most votes placed are votes for socialist, leftist parties. However, AV would be bad news for The Conservatives. As one of the only (if not THE only) legitimate right wing party, there is all the more reason and motivation for right wing supporters to get out and vote ‘no’ for their own self interest.
Ken Livingstone to be London Mayor in 2012
There is a mayoral election in May 2012. I think Boris Johnson will be defeated. Partly by a wider anti-tory feeling and partly because he is a bit of a tit, anyway.